Saturday, June 10, 2006

Zarqawi's Death & Long Term War on Terror

I don't know about the long-term benefits of Zarqawi's death? It is reasonably arguable either way and none of us really know.

Here is my opinion; Place yourself as a member of a group peaceful OR criminal. Whether for justified reasons or not, if your President or Vice Pres had a bomb dropped on his head or a bullet went through his head. Later would heard it was a foreign nation's military or maybe the mob. Either way, does it not become apparent to you and your associates "someone wants to shut us up". This undoubtedly has an negative effect on group dynamics does it not?

Of the members in any group there are always those who would do anything for the cause, some on the fence and those who are on the way out the door. Adding the death of a member, let alone the leader, would likely embolden some and recruit through martyrdom, however it is just as likely for the "fencers" to call it quits and others who would be no-shows on their start day of Al Queda Training Academy.

Maybe it is a wash... But I would like to believe it is a net gain for the good guys. Murder rates in countries with capital punishment are typically low. The best example are Muslim nations.

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