To Salvage Power, Syria Bends

Muammar Qadhafi was confronted with a choice in October 2003 as a ship carrying centrifuges and other equipment was caught heading to Libya. We know the first choice given him by the 'good guys' in the international community 1) give up your nuclear weapons program or else.... Do we know what the second option would have been? Libya was already suffering under economic sanctions since 1986. Maybe his nuclear facilities would have been made military targets. Perhaps further sanctions or actions would have been made.

Qadhafi has personal gain by keeping out of the limelight of the United States and United Nations. He retains his position and power. By relinquishing WMD programs he maintains his status quo and may even be rewarded through easing of sanctions. The key to his retention was showing the "good guys" he was cooperating and diplomacy was working. There would be less need for more serious action by the 'good guys' if he is showing improvement. He salvaged his power.

Syrian leader, Bashar Assad may actually be a nice man and has decided to give Lebanon back to the Lebanese. However it is also reasonable to conjecture he too may be cutting his losses. He is showing calculated improvement to avoid further attention. He seemingly becomes a smaller problem and is less likely to face otherwise mounting pressure.

Because Iraq is no longer a member of the 'axis of evil,' Bashar does not want Syria to fill the vacancy. Suggestion to the 'good guys.' As we move to bigger fish in North Korea and Iran, keep an eye on Syria.