Monday, August 07, 2006

2006 Hurrican Season & Global Warming

One year ago I was still in denial. I did not believe the Earth was warming and I did not think "we" had anything to do with it. A year has seen change and some "digging in."

A record number of hurricanes and some fierce storms came off the Atlantic in 2005. It was a field (day) year for alarmists. There were those who made their predictions for 2006. As the previous is from Wikipedia, it has the potential to change. Below will be cut and paste as to never leave the corridors of history:

On May 22, 2006, NOAA released their forecasts for the 2006 season. They predict 13 to 16 named storms, with 8 to 10 becoming hurricanes, and 4 to 6 becoming major hurricanes.[5]

On May 31, 2006, Klotzbach's team released their final pre-season forecast for 2006, confirming their previous numbers.[6]

Midseason Outlook

On August 3, 2006, Klotzbach's team lowered their season estimate to 15 named storms, with 7 becoming hurricanes and 3 becoming major hurricanes. They noted that conditions have become less favorable than they were earlier in the year. The sea level pressure and trade wind strength in the tropical Atlantic are above normal, while sea surface temperatures are on a decreasing trend.[7]



It is important to note the table posted to the page:

Record high activity (2005): 28 15 8
CSU 5 December 2005 predicted; 17 9 5
CSU 3 August 2006, now the lowered prediction: 15 7 3
Activity to date: 3 - -

If there is so much need for alarm, then why has CSU reduced their own 2006 predictions? We are almost half way through the hurrican season. If the conditions we so ripe as they were in 2005, we should have had 8-10 hurricanes by now and at least 3 major. So far, 3 wimpy tropical storms; Alberto, Beryl and Chris.

I am trying to be open minded. But could someone throw me a bone?

Plus I have a bet with a young lady, there will be less than 5 hurricanes total this year. If she wins (more than 5 hurricanes) I drink tobasco sauce. If I win (5 or less), she will do something similar, She loves Tobasco and habaneros. Let us hope for less destruction and my win.

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